Author: PACEC
Pages: 33
Year: 2008
Source: Local Government Association
The analysis in this report is based on an assumption that the economy will enter a recession that reduces GDP by 2.0% in 2009 and recovers by 0.75% in 2010.This stylised assumption for GDP growth was then used to generate an estimate of employment change over the period. Historic correlations between growth and employment suggest that employment might fall by 1.7 million. (This is not a forecast of unemployment, incidentally: employment can fall through workers retiring, migrant workers leaving the country, or workers with more than one job reducing the number of jobs they do).
Web link: http://www.lga.gov.uk/lga/aio/1215871
