10 Key projections that will shape the workplace in 2012 and beyond

09.01.12

The Welsh Government is seeking to expand and broaden the use of Labour Market Intelligence (LMI) across Wales. This is one of a regular series of articles which will be appearing in the DYSG newsletter and on the Learning and Skills Observatory website.

It's great to stay on top of the latest economic trends, but it's even better to be ahead of them and see where the labour market is going, not just where it is today. Working Futures 2010 – 2020 does just that. The fourth in a series of labour market assessments undertaken by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES), this latest study focuses on a ten year horizon, giving a picture of the labour market for 2020.

What will the labour market look like in 2020? Which sectors are expected to grow? Where are the best employment prospects?

Here are 10 key projections from the report to get you thinking.

1. The economic growth rate for Wales in the coming decade is projected at 2.2% per annum. Whilst this is lower than the UK average, it is more than double the rate of growth between 2000 and 2010.
2. Employment in Wales is expected to grow by 0.5% per annum, in line with figures for the UK. This is higher than Scotland and several other regions of the UK. Unemployment across Wales is projected to decline by 0.7% (to 8.3%).
3. At a UK level, employment growth is expected to be female-driven. In Wales, however, male employment is projected to increase by a greater proportion than female employment.
4. Across the UK, there is a trend away from full time employment to part time work, although far more employees should work full time by 2020.
5. Of those in total employment, the share of self-employment in Wales was above the UK average in 2010 and is projected to remain the same until 2020.
6. Economic growth is expected across all six broad industry sectors in Wales, with the largest growth in business and other services. 
7. Employment growth in Wales is expected to be above the UK average for the primary sector (which includes agriculture, mining and quarrying) and utilities, construction and trade, accommodation and transport. Manufacturing employment is projected to decline in Wales, although this decline should be less pronounced than in the previous decade.
8. Skilled trades jobs are expected to rise in Wales, whilst declining elsewhere; and high skill occupations are also expected to increase with managers and senior officials gaining the most.
9. In Wales, increases in employment in the construction sector are expected to benefit men, whilst women are more likely to do well in the trade, accommodation and transport sectors.
10. In terms of qualifications, the proportion of those employed in Wales with no qualifications should fall, whilst the proportion with QCF levels 7-8¹ should rise significantly. By 2020, Wales should still trail the UK average.

We may not be able to predict the future with precision or certainty, but we can use these trends as patterns to prepare and plan. Dig deeper into the report for a more detailed analysis and equip yourself for what lies ahead.

If you have any comments about the sorts of LMI you value in your work and how LMI has been of benefit to you, we'd like to hear from you. For this and further information about the LMI project contact Rachel Stephens, Senior Skills Policy Manager at the Welsh Government at rachel.stephens2@wales.gsi.gov.uk

¹equivalent to postgraduate level

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